ONGOING: 8+ DAY ECONOMIC UPRISING (Dec 28 - Present)
January 4, 2026 - DAY 8
Malekshahi Massacre - Khamenei Escape Plans Reported
PROTESTS
MILITARY
- MALEKSHAHI: 5 protesters killed, 30+ injured - security forces opened fire
- TOTAL DEAD: 19+ protesters, 1 security force member (HRANA)
- 222 locations in 78 cities across 26 provinces
- ESCAPE PLAN: The Times reports Khamenei has Moscow evacuation plan with 20 aides
- FIRST IN 50 YEARS: Pro-monarchy slogans dominating chants
- Internet cut in protest areas since Saturday night
- State Dept condemns suppression of protesters' funerals
January 3, 2026 - DAY 7
Khamenei: "Rioters Must Be Put In Their Place"
PROTESTS
- KHAMENEI SPEECH: "We talk to protesters... but rioters must be put in their place"
- Distinguishes "concerned citizens" from "rioters" backed by "enemies"
- Also states: "We will not yield to the enemy" - responding to Trump
- TRIGGER: Rial collapse - worst economic crisis since 1979
- "Death to the dictator" and "Death to Khamenei" chants widespread
- Loss of faith in President Pezeshkian's reform promises
January 2, 2026 - DAY 6
Protesters Killed - Security Forces Open Fire
PROTESTS
- CONFIRMED DEATHS: Security forces using live fire on crowds
- Videos show gunfire in multiple cities
- Hospitals overwhelmed - some refusing to treat protesters
- Arrests numbering in hundreds
- Government threatens "severe consequences" for continued unrest
December 28, 2025 - DAY 1
Economic Riots Erupt Nationwide
PROTESTS
SANCTIONS
- TRIGGER: Iranian Rial collapses to record lows
- Merchants cannot afford to restock goods
- Food prices surge beyond reach of average citizens
- Unemployment and inflation crushing middle class
- ROOT CAUSE: Crippling US/EU sanctions + war costs
LATE 2025 - POST-WAR PERIOD
December 27, 2025
IRGC Leadership Restructure - Vahidi Appointed
MILITARY
- NEW DEPUTY: Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi appointed IRGC deputy commander
- Replaces Ali Fadavi (moved to advisory role)
- SIGNIFICANCE: Vahidi = founder of Quds Force, former Defense Minister
- WANTED: Implicated in 1994 AMIA bombing (85 dead) - Interpol notice
- Known for "harsher methods" and strict loyalty to Khamenei
- PhD in Strategic Studies - combines academic/operational experience
- Reflects Khamenei's struggle to reconstitute military after June 2025 war
December 24, 2025
AEOI Refuses IAEA Inspection
NUCLEAR
AEOI head Eslami refuses IAEA inspection of bombed nuclear sites, citing no "established regulations" for damaged facility inspections.
November 2025
OFAC Sanctions - Hezbollah Finance
SANCTIONS
HEZBOLLAH
- Sanctioned individuals funneling tens of millions from Iran to Hezbollah
- Targeted exchange houses exploiting Lebanon's cash economy
- Key individual: Ossama Jaber - collected/converted tens of millions via exchange houses
September 2025
$10M Reward Offer - Hezbollah Networks
SANCTIONS
HEZBOLLAH
US State Department Rewards for Justice program announces $10 million reward for information on Hezbollah financial networks in the Tri-Border Area (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay).
August 28, 2025
E3 Initiates Snapback Mechanism
NUCLEAR
France, Germany, and UK initiate snapback mechanism citing Iran's "highly enriched uranium stockpile."
August 2025
Lebanon Votes to Disarm Hezbollah
HEZBOLLAH
Lebanese government votes on US-backed plan to disarm Hezbollah. Sheikh Qassem continues as Secretary General.
JUNE 2025 - IRAN-ISRAEL WAR
June 26, 2025
IAEA Confirms Nuclear Damage
NUCLEAR
- Fordow centrifuges "no longer operational"
- Esfahan: 4 buildings damaged including uranium conversion plant
- Gas centrifuge program destroyed
- BUT: 60% uranium stock still usable for nuclear explosive
June 21, 2025
United States Bombs Iranian Nuclear Sites
NUCLEAR
MILITARY
US bombs three Iranian nuclear sites in coordinated action with Israel.
June 13, 2025
Israel Launches Iran-Israel War
MILITARY
NUCLEAR
- 200 Israeli fighter jets strike dozens of targets
- Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities hit
- IRGC Commander Hossein Salami - KILLED
- IRGC Aerospace Chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh - KILLED
- Khamenei appoints replacements same day
June 12, 2025
IAEA Finds Iran Non-Compliant
NUCLEAR
First time in 20 years IAEA finds Iran non-compliant. Iran retaliates by launching new enrichment site and installing advanced centrifuges.
EARLY 2025 - ESCALATION
May 31, 2025
IAEA: 408kg of 60% Enriched Uranium
NUCLEAR
- Nearly 50% increase since February
- Enough for multiple nuclear weapons if further enriched
- 40kg sufficient for implosion-type weapon
- 80kg sufficient for gun-type explosive
March 2025
Treasury Targets Sanctions Evasion Network
SANCTIONS
HEZBOLLAH
Treasury targets "Hizballah Finance Team Sanctions Evasion Network" - Press release sb0063.
February 25, 2025
Joint Navy-IRGC Missile Drill
MILITARY
- Zolfaqar 1403 exercise - first joint exercise of its kind
- Maritime Security Belt 2025 with China and Russia
- Location: Gulf of Oman near Strait of Hormuz
January 2025
IRGC-QF Transfers $1B+ to Hezbollah
HEZBOLLAH
SANCTIONS
Since January 2025, IRGC Quds Force transferred over $1 billion to Hezbollah, primarily through money exchange companies.